Home Run Derby prediction: Take Orioles’ Trey Mancini in first round

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Some of the best sluggers in MLB will be on display in the Home Run Derby, and though the Baltimore Orioles might be out of it to win the Commissioner’s Trophy for a World Series title, Trey Mancini has a chance to get some hardware for winning Monday’s event in Colorado.

Mancini missed the 2020 season due to a battle with colon cancer, but he beat it and has not missed a beat this season, going into Sunday with 15 home runs. Prior to 2020, he hit at least 24 home runs in three consecutive seasons.

His first-round matchup will be against Matt Olson of the Oakland Athletics, who entered Sunday with 21 home runs and also belted at least 24 homers in three straight seasons prior to the 60-game 2020 season.

Both players have hit their home runs relatively equally, with Mancini’s average home run length being 407 feet and Olson’s 406 feet. Neither has much familiarity with Coors Field, as Olson has one home run in eight career games in Denver while Mancini has zero home runs in three games.

Mancini finds himself a sizable underdog in this matchup despite many of the metrics being incredibly close. With Notre Dame pitching coach Chuck Ristano throwing to Mancini — Ristano also pitched to Mancini when won the 2012 Big East Home Run Derby title — the underdog price with Mancini in his matchup with Olson has lots of value.

The Play: Mancini (+165) over Olson in the first round.

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